Tuesday, December 5, 2023
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms & Conditions
  • Email Whitelisting
Best Retirement Wishes
  • Economy
  • Editor’s Pick
  • Investing
  • Stock
  • Top News
No Result
View All Result
Best Retirement Wishes
Home Economy

A Credit Crunch Is Inevitable

by
May 6, 2023
in Economy
0
A Credit Crunch Is Inevitable
0
SHARES
12
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

Federal Reserve data shows $98 billion of deposits left the banking system in the week after the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. Most of the money went to money-market funds, as the Bloomberg data shows that assets in this class rose by $121 billion in the same period. The data shows the challenges of the banking system in the middle of a confidence crisis.

However, as many analysts point out, this is not necessarily the main factor that dictates the risk of a credit crunch. Deposit flight is certainly an important risk. Many regional banks will have to cut lending to families and businesses as deposits shrink, but in the United States bank loans are less than 19 percent of corporate credit according to the IMF, while in the euro area it is more than 80 percent. What will generate a credit crunch is the destruction of capital in the asset base of most lenders.

Related posts

The Government Created 30-Year Mortgages to Make Housing Affordable. Today, Housing Is Becoming Unaffordable

The Government Created 30-Year Mortgages to Make Housing Affordable. Today, Housing Is Becoming Unaffordable

December 5, 2023

The Legacy of Legacy Admissions Is Not What the Critics Claim

December 5, 2023

The slump in mark-to-market valuations of all asset classes from loans to investments is what will ultimately drive an inevitable credit contraction.

Credit standards have tightened significantly already, and the credit impulse of the economy, both in the US and euro area, has deteriorated rapidly, according to the respective Bloomberg indices. Both are below the March 2021 low.

We must remember that credit standards’ tightening was already a reality before the Silicon Valley Bank demise. But the reality check of capital destruction in the financial system’s asset base is far from done.

Start-ups will most likely see the most severe crunch in financing as the tech bubble burst adds to the asset base capital destruction in private equity and venture capital firms, who have delayed all they could the required write-downs and face a sobering reality check. Our internal estimate of capital destruction in the asset base of banks and private equity firms is between a 15 to 25 percent wipeout, which is consistent with the average decline in market value over the October 2021–March 2023 period.

Real estate investments all over the US and Europe require a significant reevaluation now that real estate has underperformed the market for eighteen months, according to Morgan Stanley. The optimistic valuations of real estate and corporate investments in banks’ balance sheets will require a significant analysis and subsequent write-off that leads to much tighter credit standards and stringent investment conditions.

Capital destruction tends to be forgotten in a world used to constant central bank easing, but it is likely to be the main source of strangling of credit to families and businesses as banks and private equity firms deal with the loss of value and weakening earnings and cash flow of investments made at elevated valuations and unreasonable prices. The main challenge this time is that capital destruction is happening in almost every part of the lenders’ asset base, from the allegedly low-risk part, sovereign bond portfolios, to the aggressively priced investments in volatile businesses and bull-market valuations of corporate and venture capital investments. The profitable asset part of banks will likely require important provisions for nonperforming loans, a subject that was raised by the Federal Reserve and the ECB months before the banking crisis. Furthermore, as governments will blame the recent collapses on lack of regulation again, it is extremely likely that new rules will be imposed demanding banks to book large provisions recognizing losses on the loan book ahead of time.

Even if we assume a modest impact on banks’ balance sheets, the combination of higher rates, declining optimism about the economy and the slump in equity, private investments and bond valuations is going to inevitably lead to a massive crunch in access to credit and financing. It is more than banks. The crunch will come from private direct middle market loans, a decline in high-yield bond demand, while institutional leveraged loans may fall as access to leverage is more expensive and challenging and investment grade bonds may likely continue to see strong demand but at higher costs. The question is not when there will be a credit crunch, but how large and for how long. Considering the size of the famous “bubble of everything “and its slow implosion, it may last for a couple of years even with a central bank pivot, because by now a reverse in monetary policy may only zombify the financial system.

Previous Post

Washington Has No Moral Authority to Ban Guns

Next Post

The Progressive Era and the Family

Next Post

The Progressive Era and the Family

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Get the daily email that makes reading the news actually enjoyable. Stay informed and entertained, for free.
Your information is secure and your privacy is protected. By opting in you agree to receive emails from us. Remember that you can opt-out any time, we hate spam too!

RECOMMENDED NEWS

North Carolina Legislature Cracks Down on Delinquent Local Governments

6 months ago

What the Left and Right Get Wrong On China

3 months ago

126 Parole Orders over 7 Decades: A Historical Review of Immigration Parole Orders

5 months ago
Dwindling Chinese Economic Information Is Par for the Authoritarian Course

Dwindling Chinese Economic Information Is Par for the Authoritarian Course

4 months ago

BROWSE BY CATEGORIES

  • Economy
  • Editor's Pick
  • Stock
  • Top News
Get the daily email that makes reading the news actually enjoyable. Stay informed and entertained, for free.
Your information is secure and your privacy is protected. By opting in you agree to receive emails from us. Remember that you can opt-out any time, we hate spam too!

POPULAR NEWS

  • How not to answer the question “Why are carbon taxes unpopular with policymakers and politicians?”

    0 shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • How Can We Restore Freedom and Sound Money in the US and the UK? Some Ideas

    0 shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • The New Deal and Recovery, Part 28: A New Deal for Housing

    0 shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • You Can’t Depend on the State to Maintain Public Order

    0 shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • Remember the Alamo! Moses Rose’s Last Stand

    0 shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0

Disclaimer

BestRetirementWishes.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively "The Company") do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

Recent News

  • How Protectionist Shipping Policy Drives Up the Cost of Energy
  • It’s Not Just Republicans, Democrats Want Trillion-Dollar Tax Cuts Too
  • Idaho Bucks Managed Care Trend

Category

  • Economy
  • Editor's Pick
  • Stock
  • Top News

Recent News

How Protectionist Shipping Policy Drives Up the Cost of Energy

How Protectionist Shipping Policy Drives Up the Cost of Energy

December 5, 2023
It’s Not Just Republicans, Democrats Want Trillion-Dollar Tax Cuts Too

It’s Not Just Republicans, Democrats Want Trillion-Dollar Tax Cuts Too

December 5, 2023
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms & Conditions
  • Email Whitelisting

© 2021 BestRetirementWishes. All Rights Reserved.

No Result
View All Result
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Email Whitelisting
  • Home 1
  • Privacy Policy
  • suspicious-engagement
  • Terms & Conditions
  • Thank You

© 2021 BestRetirementWishes. All Rights Reserved.